Which Watches Are Actually Worth Investing In (2026 Market Data)

Let us get something out of the way immediately: the vast majority of watches lose money. If you buy a new luxury watch at retail, you will almost certainly sell it for less than you paid. The idea that any watch you strap on your wrist is an "investment" has been one of the most profitable myths the luxury industry has ever sold.

That said, a small subset of watches from a handful of brands have historically appreciated in value, sometimes dramatically. Understanding which watches actually gain value, and why, requires cutting through a mountain of marketing and wishful thinking.

We have been buying, selling, and trading luxury timepieces on 47th Street for decades. Here is what the actual data says in 2026.

The State of the Watch Market in 2026

The watch market in early 2026 looks nothing like the frenzy of 2021 and 2022. During those years, stimulus money, crypto profits, and pandemic-era spending drove prices on popular models to absurd heights. A steel Rolex Daytona that retailed for $14,550 was selling for over $40,000 on the secondary market. Patek Philippe Nautilus references were trading at three to four times retail.

That bubble burst in late 2022 and continued correcting through 2023 and 2024. The WatchCharts Overall Market Index, which tracks secondary market prices across major brands, dropped roughly 25% to 30% from its peak. Speculators who bought at the top got destroyed.

By 2026, the market has found a floor. Prices on the most desirable references have stabilized and in some cases begun climbing again, though not at bubble-era rates. Meanwhile, the watches that were never truly collectible have continued their slide. The market has bifurcated sharply: the best holds value or appreciates; everything else depreciates like a car driving off the lot.

The Brands That Actually Hold Value

Rolex

Rolex dominates the secondary market for one simple reason: controlled supply. Rolex produces roughly 1.2 million watches per year, which sounds like a lot until you consider that demand for popular models vastly exceeds that number. Authorized dealers have waitlists measured in years for steel sports models.

Models that have appreciated over the past decade:

The Submariner (reference 126610LN and its predecessors) remains the benchmark. A no-date Submariner purchased at retail five years ago has appreciated roughly 15% to 25% depending on condition. The date version tracks similarly.

The Daytona (reference 126500LN) continues to trade well above retail, though the premium has compressed from the insane 2022 levels. Current secondary market prices run roughly $24,000 to $28,000 against a retail price of around $15,100. That is still a healthy premium, and the Daytona's history as a collectible stretches back decades.

The GMT-Master II, particularly the "Pepsi" bezel (reference 126710BLRO), remains one of the strongest performers. Secondary market prices hover around $19,000 to $22,000 against a retail of approximately $11,100.

Models that have lost value:

Datejust models, while beautiful everyday watches, generally do not appreciate. A standard 41mm Datejust will lose 10% to 20% of its retail value in the first few years.

The Sky-Dweller, despite being one of Rolex's most complicated watches, trades below retail on the secondary market in steel configurations. Complexity does not equal collectibility.

Two-tone and precious metal Rolex models (with some exceptions) tend to depreciate. The market overwhelmingly favors stainless steel sports models.

Patek Philippe

Patek holds a unique position in watchmaking. The brand produces only about 70,000 watches annually, and its reputation for quality and exclusivity is essentially unchallenged. Patek's own advertising slogan, "You never actually own a Patek Philippe, you merely look after it for the next generation," doubles as a reasonably accurate description of how these watches hold value.

Top performers:

The Nautilus 5711 and its successor models remain the gold standard for watch appreciation. When Patek discontinued the 5711/1A in 2021, prices surged to over $150,000 for a watch that retailed around $35,000. Prices have settled somewhat, but the 5711 still trades at a massive premium. The newer 5811, which replaced it, commands similar demand.

The Aquanaut line, particularly the 5167A, has shown strong appreciation. It is essentially the "accessible" Patek sports watch, though "accessible" is relative when retail is north of $25,000.

Complications are where Patek's long-term investment case is strongest. Perpetual calendars, minute repeaters, and chronographs in the reference 5170, 5270, and 5370 families have shown steady appreciation over five to ten year windows.

Weaker performers:

The Calatrava line, while beautiful and quintessentially Patek, does not appreciate the way sports models do. These are dress watches, and the market simply does not pay premiums for dress watches the way it does for steel sports pieces.

Audemars Piguet

AP is essentially a one-model brand from an investment standpoint. The Royal Oak and Royal Oak Offshore account for the vast majority of the company's value proposition on the secondary market.

What works:

The Royal Oak 15500ST (and its predecessors, especially the 15202ST "Jumbo") has been one of the strongest appreciating watches in the industry. The 15202 was trading at $80,000 to $100,000 before its discontinuation, against a retail price that was roughly $30,000. AP's newer 16202 replacement continues the legacy.

The Royal Oak Chronograph in steel also performs well, trading at or above retail in most configurations.

What does not work:

Royal Oak Offshore models, despite their size and presence, tend to depreciate unless they are limited editions or particularly desirable collaborations. The standard Offshore loses 10% to 30% from retail.

AP's Code 11.59 line launched to terrible reviews in 2019 and has never recovered its market positioning. While the watches themselves have improved significantly, secondary market values remain well below retail.

The Rest of the Field

Richard Mille operates in the ultra-luxury segment and maintains artificial scarcity that keeps prices high. However, the market for Richard Mille is thin and illiquid. Selling one quickly often means accepting a significant haircut. These are not practical investment vehicles for most collectors.

Omega produces some watches that hold value reasonably well, particularly the Speedmaster Moonwatch Professional. But "holding value" is not "appreciating." An Omega Speedmaster purchased at retail will likely trade at roughly 70% to 85% of retail after a few years. That is better than most brands, but it is not making you money.

Tudor, Rolex's sister brand, has improved its value retention significantly. The Black Bay line holds roughly 70% to 80% of retail. The Pelagos is similar. These are excellent watches that do not bleed value, but they do not appreciate either.

Cartier makes gorgeous watches that are terrible investments. A Tank or Santos purchased at retail will lose 30% to 50% of its value the moment you walk out the door. Buy a Cartier because you love it, not because you expect returns.

Hublot, TAG Heuer, Breitling, Panerai, IWC all depreciate substantially on the secondary market. Some specific limited editions or vintage references hold value, but the general pattern is significant depreciation.

What Actually Drives Watch Appreciation

Understanding why certain watches appreciate helps you predict which future models might follow the same pattern.

Supply Constraint

This is the single biggest factor. Rolex, Patek, and AP all produce far fewer watches than the market demands. You cannot walk into an authorized dealer and buy a Daytona or a Nautilus. You wait, sometimes for years. That waiting list creates secondary market premiums.

Brand Heritage

Watches that appreciate tend to come from brands with deep horological histories. Rolex has been making the Submariner since 1953. Patek has been making complications since the 1800s. This history creates a narrative that collectors buy into, and that narrative supports prices across decades.

Cultural Significance

The Rolex Daytona is associated with Paul Newman. The Omega Speedmaster went to the moon. The Audemars Piguet Royal Oak was designed by Gerald Genta and revolutionized luxury sports watches in 1972. Stories sell watches, and stories sustain value.

Material and Configuration

Stainless steel sports watches from top brands outperform gold and two-tone versions on the secondary market. This is counterintuitive because precious metal versions cost more at retail. But the market has spoken clearly: the steel versions are more desirable because they are perceived as more versatile, more durable, and more "authentic" to the model's identity.

Discontinuation

When a popular model gets discontinued, prices often spike. The Patek 5711 is the most famous recent example. Rolex's discontinuation of the "Hulk" Submariner (116610LV) caused immediate price increases. If you own a watch and the manufacturer announces its replacement, your watch just became more valuable.

How to Actually Make Money on Watches

Buy at Retail (If You Can)

The single best watch investment strategy is also the simplest: buy a desirable model at an authorized dealer's retail price. The problem is access. Getting a Rolex Daytona or Patek Nautilus at retail requires either a significant purchase history with the dealer or a very long wait. But if you can buy at retail, you are acquiring the watch at the lowest possible price point, and the secondary market premium is immediate profit on paper.

Buy Smart on the Secondary Market

If you cannot access retail, buying on the secondary market can still work, but you need to buy at the right price. Study historical pricing on WatchCharts, Chrono24, and watchRecon. Look for the low end of current market pricing. Avoid buying during hype cycles or immediately after a new model launches when FOMO drives prices up.

Hold for the Long Term

The best-performing watches in history rewarded patience. A Rolex Daytona reference 6263 "Paul Newman" could be had for $1,000 in the 1980s. Today it sells for $200,000 to $500,000 depending on condition and provenance. But that required 30 to 40 years of holding. If you are flipping watches on a six-month timeline, you are speculating, not investing.

Condition Is Everything

A watch in excellent condition with its original box, papers, hang tags, and purchase receipt will always command a premium over the same reference without documentation. Keep everything. If you buy a new watch, do not throw away the box. Store it properly. Service it when needed (but not unnecessarily, as over-polishing reduces value).

Diversify

Do not put all your money into one watch. The market for any single reference can move in unexpected directions. A small collection spanning Rolex, Patek, and AP provides diversification across brands and price points.

The Lab-Grown Diamond Parallel

We see this in our diamond business too. Just as lab-grown diamonds have cratered in resale value while natural diamonds have held steady, the watch market rewards scarcity and authenticity. Mass-produced luxury items lose value. Genuinely scarce items from heritage brands with centuries of history maintain or increase in value.

This is not snobbery. It is market mechanics. When supply is truly limited and demand is persistent, prices hold. When supply can be increased to meet demand, prices erode.

Watches to Buy in 2026

Based on current market conditions, here are specific references that we believe offer strong value propositions:

Rolex Submariner 126610LN at retail ($9,100): still trading above retail on the secondary market and likely to continue appreciating gradually.

Rolex GMT-Master II 126710BLRO at retail ($11,100): the "Pepsi" bezel has proven staying power and consistently trades at a healthy premium.

Patek Philippe Aquanaut 5167A at retail or modest premium: positioned as the "entry" Patek sports watch, with strong appreciation potential as Patek continues to restrict supply.

Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 15500ST (or its successor) at retail: the steel Royal Oak is an enduring icon and reliably trades above retail.

Omega Speedmaster Moonwatch 310.30.42.50.01.001 at retail ($6,500): while unlikely to appreciate dramatically, this watch holds value better than almost any other sub-$10,000 purchase. It is the safest "will not lose much money" watch on the market.

Watches to Avoid in 2026

Hublot Big Bang in any configuration: depreciates 30% to 50% from retail. The brand has not demonstrated the staying power needed for investment-grade timepieces.

TAG Heuer anything: solid watches that lose significant value immediately. Buy one because you like it, never as an investment.

Richard Mille at current premiums: the prices are stratospheric, the market is illiquid, and a downturn could see dramatic losses.

Any watch you "need" to finance: if you cannot afford to buy it outright, you cannot afford the risk. Watch values can and do decline. Paying interest on a depreciating asset is a guaranteed way to lose money.

Smartwatches: these are electronics, not investments. They are worth nothing in five years.

The Honest Truth About Watch Investing

Here is what the Instagram watch influencers will not tell you: even the best watch investments underperform the stock market over most time periods. The S&P 500 has returned roughly 10% annually over the long term. A Rolex Daytona has appreciated at maybe 5% to 8% annually over the past decade, and that does not account for insurance, servicing costs, and the risk of damage.

You should buy a watch because you love it, because you will enjoy wearing it every day, because it means something to you. If it also happens to appreciate in value, that is a wonderful bonus. But structuring your portfolio around wristwatches is not a sound financial strategy.

What watches do offer is a tangible, wearable asset that holds value better than almost any other luxury purchase. A watch purchased wisely from the right brand will retain most or all of its value over decades, unlike a car, a handbag, or a vacation. In that sense, a great watch is not so much an investment as it is a purchase that does not punish you for making it.

That is a rare quality in a luxury item, and it is reason enough to buy one.

Come see us on 47th Street. We carry pre-owned and new Rolex, Patek, AP, and more. We will tell you exactly what a watch is worth on the current market, what it is likely to be worth in five years, and whether it makes sense for you. No pressure, no hype, just six decades of experience and the kind of honesty that has kept us in business this long.